Scenario Planning

Arcipel delivered a year‑long project for the U.S. Department of Defense examining escalation management dynamics in the Gulf. Running from 2023 to 2024, the work combined strategic analysis with a series of scenario‑based exercises designed to explore how a conflict with Iran could unfold under different political and operational conditions. The project provided the DoD with a structured framework for understanding escalation pathways and identifying potential miscalculation risks in a rapidly evolving regional crisis.