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Arcipel Weekly Update

May 18 to 25th

US Politics

Super Tuesday will allocate of a third of delegates in the Democratic race.


Arcipel Predicts: With momentum after his South Carolina win, we expect Joe Biden to outperform expectations, with challengers dropping out soon after


China PMI Data

With coronavirus, Chinese data will be awful. Consensus expects a drop in the PMI from 51.8 to 48. 

Arcipel Predicts: We think this is wildly optimistic – large parts of the economy effectively shut down in February – and the number will undershoot dramatically.


Russia & Turkey

Tensions have risen between Turkey and Russia in northwestern Syria in recent weeks, but both sides are looking for an off-ramp.

Arcipel  Predicts: A limited face-saving deal seams likely. 








May 5


May 4


May 7

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